David Hunter Tow, Director of The Future of Life Research Centre, provides a possible solution to the mystery of why signals from alien civilizations have not yet been received by the SETI project.
SETI has recently celebrated its 50th birthday. On the surface, the project still radiates optimism, driven by the possibility that a credible signal might one day herald the existence of another intelligent civilisation in the galaxy.
Over the past 50 years SETI has focused primarily on radio frequency transmissions, while also dabbling briefly with the optical spectrum, searching for laser pulses from outer space. A number of more radical approaches have been canvassed, including infrared transmissions, gravity waves and neutrinos, but these appear to be infeasible at present.
In the meantime the SETI Institute continues to apply its Allen Telescope Array, an array of 42 small dishes, to the search, now introducing a new project– setiQuest, designed to open up its search algorithms to the public, providing a new source of computational power and innovation.
Over time, a number of additional powerful instruments and techniques have been deployed by the astronomical community, to probe the mysteries of other candidate star systems across the galaxy, including searching for signs of life. Discoveries of other solar systems similar to our own, including those that may harbor earth-like rocky planets are becoming increasingly likely, with some predictions of up to 100 million earths in the galaxy.
The glittering prize therefore seems tantalizingly close.
But something’s missing from the project. Under the invisibility cloak of eternal optimism there are growing doubts about SETI’s methodology. After 50 years there should have been something to show- some hint of intelligent life or even a reason for the lack of it - and there was. For a fleeting moment back in the seventies an unusual spike in the spectrum appeared- the Wow signal. But then disappeared just as quickly as it arrived. With hindsight however it might have provided a clue to the mindset of other civilisations.
Conservative estimates of life in the galaxy point to the existence of a spectrum of evolutionary outcomes, based on the large number of probable earth-like planets that almost certainly harbor microbial populations.
A few like our own civilization will have achieved the ability to infer the existence of other life forms by codifying the laws of nature and the physics of the electromagnetic spectrum. A larger number, able to grasp and walk upright, may be on track to harness the early technologies of tool-making and agriculture. And of course many more will be at the beginning of their evolutionary cycle, like salmon swimming upstream against the current; tiny animals with proto-brains and nervous systems desperately trying to reach the calmer waters of survival. And many more proto-civilisations that went extinct before they could realize their full potential.
And then just perhaps, a handful of super-civilisations- SCs may have evolved; those with technologies well in advance of our own- capable of sending and receiving powerful messages across the galaxy and even universe. These would possess the ability to harness the inexhaustible power of clean fusion energy and overcome the threats of dangerous climate change and global conflict.
Regardless of the probabilities, which currently the best science is unable to credibly quantify, super-civilisations are our best hope of making meaningful contact. But in order for SETI to achieve this objective it must factor in a big chunk of crucial science that’s currently missing from its strategy.
It must incorporate the social dimension.
Super-Civilizations are not only likely to have already discovered our existence, but they will have a much deeper understanding of the universe at large - not only at the technological level but also at the social and ethical level. (Ref SETI and Alien Ethics blog)
Meanwhile on planet Earth, our culture of aggression and killing continues to dominate. We are a civilization that is still largely intent on solving conflicts by force, although a smarter way is on the horizon (Ref Future of War blog). And because of their advanced observational technology, SCs would be fully aware of this risk factor.
No doubt they have the scientific capability to monitor our progress and are doing so already. It is not that hard to sense and analyse chemical emissions spectra in our atmosphere, while also inferring our progress along the evolutionary path of social development.
They would long ago have mapped the 400 billion star systems in our galaxy and determined their planetary composition- selecting the most likely earthlike planets to monitor for intelligent life. This is likely to be achieved here on earth within the next hundred years or so if we survive our current chaos.
A super-civilization with a mere 500 year head start on us technologically- just a fleeting moment in the history of the universe- would also possess the capability of communicating and travelling over vast distances in the cosmos, possibly at greater than the speed of light. Perhaps this would be achieved through new physics such as short cuts through spacetime or quantum teleportation.
They will also have overcome their aggressive evolutionary legacy and advanced light years beyond this barbaric bottleneck. All life on earthlike planets with environments similar to our own will highly likely have followed similar evolutionary trajectories. Such a conclusion is strongly supported by current biological Convergence Theory.
As for the mythology that suggests SCs are likely to covet our planetary resources- simple logic suggests the opposite.
Any advanced society would have long since had access to unlimited energy supplies by harnessing green power sources or nuclear fusion. On an earth-like planet an SC would also have been able to exploit similar material resources as well as quantum, electronic and chemical processes, synthesizing its own meta-materials as we are beginning to. Plant and animal ecosystems would also be similar to ours (Ref Convergence Theory) and no doubt fully conserved and sustainable because of their mastery over the entire biosphere.
The fact is that at this stage in our society’s development we would have virtually nothing of any substance to offer them.
Any similar or less developed civilizations will almost certainly be as aggressive and acquisitively territorial as us, but in any case would not have the technological capability to reach our planet by any form of space travel, just as we could not reach them. It is unlikely that we will be capable of exploring beyond our own solar system for another 100 years and then mainly by deploying robotic probes.
But above all SCs would have developed an extremely high level of ethical and moral legitimacy, otherwise they wouldn’t have been able to overcome the enormous challenges involved in creating an advanced society. They would have been forced long ago to subsume their naturally basic aggressive tendencies, and cooperate as one species living on one planet, in order to overcome the massively complex issues of poverty, justice, global warming and conflict, that we as a species are just coming to terms with.
SCs, if they exist, are no doubt waiting for us humans to reach the minimum threshold of maturity as a civilization; just as candidate European nations must reach a satisfactory level of democracy, human rights and financial governance before being accepted into the EU family of nations. Our threshold must include requisite non- warring, ethical and human rights solutions, the sustainability of our critical ecosystems as well as technological and computing capability. The emergence of Web 4.0 and 5.0 will help meet those criteria and threshold as early as 2050. (Ref The Future of the Web blog)
Then and only then will they deem it timely to communicate with us and begin to share their knowledge and perhaps acceptance into their federation of other super-civilisations.
Imagine if we knew of the existence of another civilization that had warred for centuries, almost wiped out its civilization by nuclear weapons, which they still retained, and was well on the way to global greenhouse armageddon, in addition to reaching breaking point in its democratic institutions. Would we want to communicate with them? I doubt it.
We should not the ones worried by unfriendly overtures from an advanced alien culture. It is they who would be extremely wary of us. As with a parent and child relationship, they cannot save us from our own mistakes. They will wait and watch.
So could this be the basis of our lack of other-world contact at this point in our history? If such super-civilisations have indeed survived and flourished in our galactic neighbourhood, then yes – this is the most likely scenario. The sole enigmatic signal we received may indeed have been an attempt by another advanced society to communicate with us. But it may well then have been withdrawn for fear of attracting the unwelcome interest of an immature, war-like civilization.
If the SETI project is to ultimately succeed and it must, then it will have to face this possibility and apply a portion of its resources to educating the rest of the human race to the likely consequences of our dysfunctional social actions beyond the borders of our own blue dot.
The benefits of first contact with a super-civilisation will be immeasurable, but the pre-conditions that an advanced society might mandate for mentoring our progress, will be our continued progress towards social wisdom as well as scientific knowledge.
It is unlikely therefore that we will receive a response to our signal without the counterpoint of social progress. Or if we do, it may come from another putative civilization as dangerous as ourselves.
Blog
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Sunday, September 5, 2010
The Future of Health
By 2020 most developed countries will have established comprehensive electronic Health Record systems to track lifetime patient medical and general population health histories, including personal DNA genome sequences and SNP microarray test results. An individual’s medical records will then provide personalised drug and vaccine protocols based on genetic response variants. Whole-of-life e-health records will be accessible across the developed and much of developing world, eventually allowing the creation of online global networks of population health records from pre-birth to death.
Global e-Health archiving will also accelerate the provision of expert biomedical advice and services to populations across the planet, utilising the communication modalities of the Web and smart mobile phone technologies. These will also function as personalised helpers, performing real-time monitoring and transmission of vital patient status data including images, via ubiquitous sensor networks. These will forward continuous data to government and private healthcare hubs for expert online assessment and intervention.
In addition, health and lifestyle support will be managed increasingly in conjunction with global professional care and patient social networks. Such networks operating via the open standards of web-based technologies will promote collaboration between patients, caregivers and health providers, offering interactive exchange of case information- symptoms, diagnosis and treatment options; improving lifestyle outcomes and ensuring individuals feel less isolated.
By 2025 A Universal Health Grid will be in operation connecting e-health client records seamlessly across all nations;. providing ubiquitous communication support for the acquisition and delivery of life enhancement knowledge on a global basis. In addition, scanned images will be linked in vast virtual databases, to provide remote expert support to local medical teams and practitioners. This will facilitate advanced surgical techniques, applied remotely using robotic, virtual and augmented reality technologies.
By 2030 tens of thousands of human genomes from diverse populations will have been sequenced and made available online for research into the genetic basis of common diseases. Analysis will have moved from understanding the role of single gene mutations to the highly complex networks of multiple genetic interactions. Polygenic natural selection has allowed new traits to rapidly sweep through populations in the past, allowing humans to adapt to extreme climates and new food sources
The genetic basis of the major diseases and injuries afflicting humans will have been traced and effective therapies addressed covering- Neurodegenerative - such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimers; Pathogenic and parasitic based- - such as malaria, dengue fever, cholera and lyme; Cancers and auto-immune diseases; Organ failure- such as heart, pancreas, lung, liver and kidney; Injuries to nervous system, joints and bone- such as spinal cord trauma and arthritis. Improvements in therapies will continue at an accelerating rate.
In addition, the power of the web will be supported by a new way of unlocking a deeper understanding of nature and its evolution in the form of Systems Biology- already marking a paradigm shift from traditional reductionism to a more holistic level of understanding of biological phenomena. This approach interprets organisms in terms of information processing networks at the system rather than component genetic, proteins and environmental level. Systems biology also marks the beginning of a more quantitative science, highlighting the causality and dynamics of biological interactions by applying mathematical models and the capability of simulating interactions at all levels- cells, organs and the total organism.
Stem Cell therapies, including both adult and embryonic stem cell differentiation, will be commonly applied to the repair of human tissue and organs including—skin, cartilage, blood vessels, bone, eyes, spine, pancreas, liver and heart muscle. The future treatment of diseases such as heart failure and breast cancer will be revolutionised by such technologies, with the option of growing new organs and tissue inside the human body using the patient’s own stem cells and biodegradable scaffolds to avoid immune rejection.
Stem cell technology will complemented by Molecular Engineering techniques such as gene therapy, involving the correction of genetic mutations by inserting reengineered genes into cells. Molecular engineers are already beginning to create custom-built proteins with enhanced functions, including the capacity to correct disease genes causing hemophilia, muscular dystrophy and sickle cell anemia.
Understanding the role of RNA in cells will also be vital in understanding gene silencing and targeting cancer and other diseases.
By 2035 Cyber-Human symbiosis will also be routinely applied, allowing the direct linkage between computer-electronic control and virtual reality technologies and human biological systems. This science is already includes the use of -
Sensory augmentation implants such as early retinal and corneal implants;
prosthetics such as a neurally-controlled limbs; brain interfaces, overcoming paralysis using brain signals; artificial hippocampus- assisting patients with memory deficits;
brain image extraction and reconstruction and interactive humanoid robots to provide human companionship and physical support.
By 2040 Neuro-Engineering technology will be commonly applied enabling enhancement of human intelligence, memory and creativity. Significant advances are already being made towards simulating the brain’s capacity for sensation, perception, action, interaction and cognition, using advanced 3D fMRI and Optogenetics technologies; allowing better analysis of neural circuits to reveal new neural regulation and drug treatment targets.
Cognitive enhancement compounds will also be widely used. These will be applied to Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia as well as generally enhancing human decision-making, alertness and memory capability. The impact of cyberspace on the evolution of the brain is also likely to be very significant over the coming decades. Children are constantly being neurally rewired as the interactive Web becomes an essential part of their lives in the form of virtual realities, multimedia and social networking.
Brain simulation is also a nascent field offering huge future potential. A brain with a billion neurons and ten trillion synapses- equivalent to a cat’s cortex or 4.5% of a human brain has been simulated by IBM; while a team of European scientists have taken the first steps towards creating a silicon chip designed to function like a the cortex of a human brain. With research and development converging on all fronts in this field- both at the hardware and software level, it will be only a matter of time before a brain with human-level complexity is scaled up for experimental use.
Molecular biology has largely been applied as a reductive science but now synthetic biologists are beginning to build machines from interchangeable DNA parts that work inside living cells, deriving energy, processing information and eventually reproducing. Flexible reliable fabrication technology, together with standardised methods and design libraries have enabled a new generation of biological engineers to already create new organisms from biological components from the ground up..
By 2045 the nanobiotechnology revolution of new and enhanced life forms will be common. For the first time in human history an artificial life form with synthetic DNA has been created by Craig Venter This will open a portal for the explosion of human potential beyond the confines of biological evolution alone. In addition, Medibots are being designed. These are tiny robots only a few millimetres in size that can work internally and are designed to enter the body through the mouth, ears, eyes or lungs and swim through the bloodstream.
These will be widely used to conduct robotic surgery, install medical devices, including a camera in a capsule small enough to be swallowed, deliver drugs and take tissue samples. Nanoscale machines and motors will be inserted inside cells which can then self-assemble and seamlessly integrate with other cell functions. Smart implants and tiny biological fuel cells are also on the drawing board, capable of producing electricity from glucose and oxygen in the bloodstream.
By 2050 the super-intelligent Web 4.0 will have combined human and artificial intelligence. It will be ubiquitous, powered by a smart computational sensory, grid/mesh, enveloping and connecting human life and encompassing all facets of social and scientific activity- always on and available.
This capability will be essential for supporting the immensely complex decision-making and problem solving requirements essential for civilisation's future progress, including applying algorithms to manage medical research, diagnosis and treatment. The Web will then have emerged as the senior partner in complex medical diagnosis and specialist intervention, as well as genetic discoveries; driving health progress into the future.
Within 40 years the rate of medical/health advances will have accelerated knowledge discovery to the point where it will begin to eliminate most human diseases, doubling human lifespan to 150 years. Combined with accepted human cloning and breakthroughs in organ replacement and cognitive enhancement, the stage will be set for the emergence of a new generation of Transhumans.
Global e-Health archiving will also accelerate the provision of expert biomedical advice and services to populations across the planet, utilising the communication modalities of the Web and smart mobile phone technologies. These will also function as personalised helpers, performing real-time monitoring and transmission of vital patient status data including images, via ubiquitous sensor networks. These will forward continuous data to government and private healthcare hubs for expert online assessment and intervention.
In addition, health and lifestyle support will be managed increasingly in conjunction with global professional care and patient social networks. Such networks operating via the open standards of web-based technologies will promote collaboration between patients, caregivers and health providers, offering interactive exchange of case information- symptoms, diagnosis and treatment options; improving lifestyle outcomes and ensuring individuals feel less isolated.
By 2025 A Universal Health Grid will be in operation connecting e-health client records seamlessly across all nations;. providing ubiquitous communication support for the acquisition and delivery of life enhancement knowledge on a global basis. In addition, scanned images will be linked in vast virtual databases, to provide remote expert support to local medical teams and practitioners. This will facilitate advanced surgical techniques, applied remotely using robotic, virtual and augmented reality technologies.
By 2030 tens of thousands of human genomes from diverse populations will have been sequenced and made available online for research into the genetic basis of common diseases. Analysis will have moved from understanding the role of single gene mutations to the highly complex networks of multiple genetic interactions. Polygenic natural selection has allowed new traits to rapidly sweep through populations in the past, allowing humans to adapt to extreme climates and new food sources
The genetic basis of the major diseases and injuries afflicting humans will have been traced and effective therapies addressed covering- Neurodegenerative - such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimers; Pathogenic and parasitic based- - such as malaria, dengue fever, cholera and lyme; Cancers and auto-immune diseases; Organ failure- such as heart, pancreas, lung, liver and kidney; Injuries to nervous system, joints and bone- such as spinal cord trauma and arthritis. Improvements in therapies will continue at an accelerating rate.
In addition, the power of the web will be supported by a new way of unlocking a deeper understanding of nature and its evolution in the form of Systems Biology- already marking a paradigm shift from traditional reductionism to a more holistic level of understanding of biological phenomena. This approach interprets organisms in terms of information processing networks at the system rather than component genetic, proteins and environmental level. Systems biology also marks the beginning of a more quantitative science, highlighting the causality and dynamics of biological interactions by applying mathematical models and the capability of simulating interactions at all levels- cells, organs and the total organism.
Stem Cell therapies, including both adult and embryonic stem cell differentiation, will be commonly applied to the repair of human tissue and organs including—skin, cartilage, blood vessels, bone, eyes, spine, pancreas, liver and heart muscle. The future treatment of diseases such as heart failure and breast cancer will be revolutionised by such technologies, with the option of growing new organs and tissue inside the human body using the patient’s own stem cells and biodegradable scaffolds to avoid immune rejection.
Stem cell technology will complemented by Molecular Engineering techniques such as gene therapy, involving the correction of genetic mutations by inserting reengineered genes into cells. Molecular engineers are already beginning to create custom-built proteins with enhanced functions, including the capacity to correct disease genes causing hemophilia, muscular dystrophy and sickle cell anemia.
Understanding the role of RNA in cells will also be vital in understanding gene silencing and targeting cancer and other diseases.
By 2035 Cyber-Human symbiosis will also be routinely applied, allowing the direct linkage between computer-electronic control and virtual reality technologies and human biological systems. This science is already includes the use of -
Sensory augmentation implants such as early retinal and corneal implants;
prosthetics such as a neurally-controlled limbs; brain interfaces, overcoming paralysis using brain signals; artificial hippocampus- assisting patients with memory deficits;
brain image extraction and reconstruction and interactive humanoid robots to provide human companionship and physical support.
By 2040 Neuro-Engineering technology will be commonly applied enabling enhancement of human intelligence, memory and creativity. Significant advances are already being made towards simulating the brain’s capacity for sensation, perception, action, interaction and cognition, using advanced 3D fMRI and Optogenetics technologies; allowing better analysis of neural circuits to reveal new neural regulation and drug treatment targets.
Cognitive enhancement compounds will also be widely used. These will be applied to Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia as well as generally enhancing human decision-making, alertness and memory capability. The impact of cyberspace on the evolution of the brain is also likely to be very significant over the coming decades. Children are constantly being neurally rewired as the interactive Web becomes an essential part of their lives in the form of virtual realities, multimedia and social networking.
Brain simulation is also a nascent field offering huge future potential. A brain with a billion neurons and ten trillion synapses- equivalent to a cat’s cortex or 4.5% of a human brain has been simulated by IBM; while a team of European scientists have taken the first steps towards creating a silicon chip designed to function like a the cortex of a human brain. With research and development converging on all fronts in this field- both at the hardware and software level, it will be only a matter of time before a brain with human-level complexity is scaled up for experimental use.
Molecular biology has largely been applied as a reductive science but now synthetic biologists are beginning to build machines from interchangeable DNA parts that work inside living cells, deriving energy, processing information and eventually reproducing. Flexible reliable fabrication technology, together with standardised methods and design libraries have enabled a new generation of biological engineers to already create new organisms from biological components from the ground up..
By 2045 the nanobiotechnology revolution of new and enhanced life forms will be common. For the first time in human history an artificial life form with synthetic DNA has been created by Craig Venter This will open a portal for the explosion of human potential beyond the confines of biological evolution alone. In addition, Medibots are being designed. These are tiny robots only a few millimetres in size that can work internally and are designed to enter the body through the mouth, ears, eyes or lungs and swim through the bloodstream.
These will be widely used to conduct robotic surgery, install medical devices, including a camera in a capsule small enough to be swallowed, deliver drugs and take tissue samples. Nanoscale machines and motors will be inserted inside cells which can then self-assemble and seamlessly integrate with other cell functions. Smart implants and tiny biological fuel cells are also on the drawing board, capable of producing electricity from glucose and oxygen in the bloodstream.
By 2050 the super-intelligent Web 4.0 will have combined human and artificial intelligence. It will be ubiquitous, powered by a smart computational sensory, grid/mesh, enveloping and connecting human life and encompassing all facets of social and scientific activity- always on and available.
This capability will be essential for supporting the immensely complex decision-making and problem solving requirements essential for civilisation's future progress, including applying algorithms to manage medical research, diagnosis and treatment. The Web will then have emerged as the senior partner in complex medical diagnosis and specialist intervention, as well as genetic discoveries; driving health progress into the future.
Within 40 years the rate of medical/health advances will have accelerated knowledge discovery to the point where it will begin to eliminate most human diseases, doubling human lifespan to 150 years. Combined with accepted human cloning and breakthroughs in organ replacement and cognitive enhancement, the stage will be set for the emergence of a new generation of Transhumans.
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